As manufacturing sector changes, production occupations disappear: an analysis of employment from 2007–20
The Great Recession and the years of recovery that followed saw sweeping changes to the U.S. economy, including notable changes to the makeup of the labor market and industry employment. During the recession (2007–10), employment decreased for many occupations and industries including large declines for production occupations in the manufacturing sector.1 In the decade that followed the Great Recession (2010–20), the economy largely recovered; however, the growth in manufacturing sector production jobs did not make up for the 1.5 million production jobs lost from 2007 to 2010. In addition, as the manufacturing sector grew, employment shares shifted away from production occupations to other occupational groups, such as business and finance, management, and engineering.
This Beyond the Numbers article uses Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program estimates for the nation and by industry to illustrate how employment of production occupations in specific manufacturing industries and the manufacturing sector changed from 2007 to 2020.2 Focusing on changes in production occupation employment in the manufacturing sector illustrates the lasting effect recessions can have on the labor market and certain industries.
What are production occupations?
Production occupations are the largest occupational group in the manufacturing sector and make up approximately half of all manufacturing employment. They include occupations like assemblers and fabricators and metal and plastic workers.
Production occupation employment steeply decreased during the Great Recession
The Great Recession (2007–10) severely affected U.S. employment. According to OEWS estimates, total national employment fell by 5.4 percent, or 7.3 million jobs. Manufacturing sector employment fell by 18 percent, or 2.5 million jobs. Employment of production occupations in the manufacturing sector fell by 1.5 million jobs, a steep 20-percent decrease. Almost all production occupations in the manufacturing sector experienced employment decreases during this period. Table 1 shows manufacturing sector production occupations that were among those with the largest percentage of job losses from 2007 to 2010.
Over half of jobs for all other metal workers and plastic workers vanished. Employment of semiconductor processing technicians decreased by 43.8 percent and metal and plastic drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders fell by 40.5 percent. Appendix table 1 shows data for all detailed production occupations.
Production occupation employment declined for over 75 percent of manufacturing industries during the Great Recession
From 2007 to 2010, 51 of 65 manufacturing industries experienced statistically significant production occupation employment declines.3 Table 2 shows manufacturing industries that were among those with the largest production occupation declines and growth during the Great Recession. Manufacturing and reproducing magnetic and optical media was among the industries with the largest percentage of job losses, losing over half of its production jobs. Appendix table 2 shows data for all manufacturing industries.
During the Great Recession (2007–10), only 3 of 65 manufacturing industries experienced statistically significant employment increases of production occupations: other food manufacturing and aerospace product and parts manufacturing increased 8.8 and 8.5 percent, respectively, and dairy product manufacturing rose by 8.4 percent.4
Although the U.S. economy experienced steep declines in employment from 2007 to 2010, most industries recovered the jobs lost in the decade that followed; however, production occupations in the manufacturing sector did not.
Production occupations in manufacturing grew during the economic recovery (2010–20) but recovered only 13 percent of the jobs lost during the Great Recession
From 2010 to 2020, national employment increased by 12 million jobs, or 9.4 percent, recovering beyond pre-Great Recession levels. At the same time, the manufacturing sector recovered only about 600,000 (24 percent) of the 2.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession. Similarly, production occupations within the manufacturing sector recovered only about 200,000 (13 percent) of the 1.5 million jobs lost.
Even though production occupations grew overall, many individual production jobs in manufacturing continued to see large declines during this period. Chart 1 shows manufacturing sector production occupations that were among those with the largest percentage of job gains and losses from 2010 to 2020.
Employment for chemical equipment operators and tenders more than doubled between 2010 and 2020. Metal and plastic multiple machine tool operators and all other plant and system operators both saw more than 75 percent growth.
Some production occupation employment fell sharply, almost disappearing entirely. For example, wood patternmakers’ employment fell 87.5 percent. Photographic process workers and processing machine operators decreased 84.9 percent and metal and plastic drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders fell by 64.7 percent.
Many production occupations experienced growth during this time but were unable to surpass jobs lost between 2007 and 2010. Table 3 includes five selected occupations that experienced growth from 2010 to 2020 but did not reach employment levels equal to or exceeding their 2007 pre-recession employment.
Semiconductor processing technicians’ employment rose 50.7 percent from 2010 to 2020 but was still 15.3 percent below its 2007 level. The same was true for wood sawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, whose employment increased 25.6 percent from 2010 to 2020 but was still 19.4 percent below 2007 employment.
Employment in manufacturing industries increased during the economic recovery (2010–20), but growth amounted to only a fraction of the jobs lost during the Great Recession
Many manufacturing industries experienced large production occupation employment declines during the Great Recession followed by considerable gains during the subsequent recovery, but their 2020 employment levels were still lower than their 2007 levels. Table 4 shows selected manufacturing industries that grew between 2010 and 2020 but saw overall decline from 2007 to 2020.
Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing production occupation employment fell by 51,800 jobs during the Great Recession, then it increased by 32,560 jobs from 2010 to 2020 but was still 19,240 jobs (15.8 percent) below pre-Great Recession levels. Railroad rolling stock manufacturing; veneer, plywood, and engineered wood product manufacturing; motor vehicle parts manufacturing; and sawmills and wood preservation experienced a similar pattern of employment change.
Following the recession, most manufacturing industries did not recover jobs lost. From 2007 to 2020, 51 of 65 manufacturing industries experienced statistically significant production occupation employment declines, 7 experienced increases, and the remaining showed no significant changes. Table 5 shows manufacturing industries that were among those with the largest number of production occupation jobs lost from 2007 to 2020. Printing and related support activities, motor vehicle parts manufacturing, and cut and sew apparel manufacturing were among those industries with the biggest declines in employment levels. The printing and related support activities industry alone accounted for 10 percent of the decline in production occupations in the manufacturing sector.
Changing employment trends in the manufacturing sector, 2007–20
Looking at the cumulative change from 2007 to 2020 gives us a better idea of how the employment decrease of the Great Recession and the increase of the subsequent recovery interacted to affect manufacturing production employment. According to OEWS estimates, U.S. employment increased by 4.7 million jobs, or 3.5 percent, from 2007 to 2020. However, over the same period, total employment in the manufacturing sector fell by 1.9 million jobs, a 13-percent decrease. Most of the employment decline occurred in manufacturing sector production occupations, which dropped by 1.3 million jobs, or 17 percent over the period.
As production occupation employment fell from 2007 to 2020, the composition of the manufacturing workforce shifted. Table 6 shows major occupational groups with large percentage point increases and decreases in their share of the manufacturing sector’s total employment from 2007 to 2020. Production occupations had an employment share of about 52.6 percent in 2007, but their share fell to 50.1 percent in 2020. Shares of business and financial operations grew from 3.2 to 4.4 percent and management employment rose from 4.9 to 5.7 percent. Architecture and engineering occupations also accounted for a higher share of manufacturing employment in 2020 than in 2007.
Conclusion
Employment across many occupations and industries declined during the Great Recession and recovered in the decade after. Despite the total number of production occupation jobs in the manufacturing sector increasing from 2010 to 2020, most production occupations experienced overall losses from 2007 to 2020 and have not returned to their 2007 pre-Great Recession levels. As the economy recovered, the manufacturing sector had a shifting makeup of occupations. The share of production occupations fell, while management, business and financial operations, and architecture and engineering occupations saw employment share increases.
Appendix
The 2007 and 2010 OEWS occupational employment estimates were cross walked to match the 2018 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system. Occupations that could not be considered comparable because of changes in SOC classifications were excluded. The 2007 and 2010 four-digit manufacturing industry employment estimates were cross walked to match the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Industries that could not be considered comparable due to changes in NAICS classification were excluded. All OEWS data are available at https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm. SOC crosswalks are available at https://www.bls.gov/soc. NAICS crosswalks are available at https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/bls_naics/v3/bls_naics_app.htm#tab=transition&naics=2022.
For the full appendix, check out the article from the Bureau of Labor Statistics