Small Business Optimism Edges Up in New Jersey in November

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points in November to 99.0 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, six increased, three decreased, and one was unchanged. An increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from October to 91. An increase in owners reporting uncertainty about capital expenditure plans over the next three to six months was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index.

“Difficulty finding qualified workers in New Jersey and nationwide continues to be a drag on the small business economy,” said Eileen Kean, NFIB NJ State Director. “Nevertheless, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future. Small business owners are cautiously optimistic, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty when it comes to staffing, rising costs, and tough decisions about future investments.”

Key findings include:

• In November, the net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 13 points from October to a net 34% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since March 2023 and the largest monthly jump in the survey’s history.
• In November, 21% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 6 points, erasing most of October’s sudden increase. Labor quality ranked as the top problem, 6 points ahead of inflation, which ranked second.
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 9 points from October to a net 15% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the most to the rise in the Optimism Index.
• The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 7.9% in November, down 0.8 points from October and the lowest level since May 2023.
• When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 11% reported it as excellent (down 1 point), and 53% reported it as good (up 2 points). Thirty percent reported the health of their business as fair (down 3 points), and 5% reported it as poor (up 1 point).
• In November, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up 4 points from October.
• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 5 points from October to a net 15% (seasonally adjusted). Expectations for better business conditions have fallen by 32 points since January.

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 33% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in November, up 1 point from October and the first increase since June. Unfilled job openings remain well above the historical average of 24%. Of the 56% of owners hiring or trying to hire in November, 89% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 19% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 4 points from October and the highest reading of the year. The last time hiring plans reached this level was in December 2024.

In November, 21% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 6 points, erasing most of October’s increase. Fifteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up 3 points from October, making it the second biggest issue. Fourteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, down 2 points from October. The percent of small business owners reporting government regulations and red tape as their single most important problem rose 3 points to 10%. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners remained at 8%.

Read more at NFIB – National Federation of Independent Business.